Marine Le Pen

Le Pen gains ground for 2022 elections

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France’s Rassemblement National (RN) or National Rally party  leader Marine Le Pen is increasing her chances of winning the first round of the presidential election in 2022, according to an Ifop-Fiducial poll published by Le Journal du Dimanche.

Le Pen would come first in six out of 10 scenarios in the first round if the ballots were cast on Sunday (April 11), the poll showed. Le Pen with 25 to 27% of the vote while Emmanuel Macron with 24 to 28% emerge in the lead in the first round, ahead of former health minister and president of the working class northern region of Hauts-de-France Xavier Bertrand.

“The results reflect Le Pen’s strong dynamic as well as President Emmanuel Macron’s difficulties in the health crisis context,” Frederic Dabi, Ifop’s deputy general director, was cited as saying in the French weekly newspaper. “Never before, with only one year to go to the ballot, has a National Rally candidate obtained such scores.” Macron’s popularity has dropped recently over his handling of the coronavirus.

Le Pen has promised a referendum on plans to radically change the country’s approach to immigration within six months of taking office. Since taking over from her father Jean-Marie as leader of the RN — the successor to the Front National — Marine Le Pen has moderated many of the party’s policies and has expelled members accused of racism and anti-Semitism, including her father.

The 2022 French presidential election campaign has many similarities to 2017, but also some notable differences, ING said in a note. “Rate markets’ reaction should be more contained than then, as long as leaving the EU stays off the agenda. In FX, a risk premium is already visible in implied volatility ahead of the vote, but EUR/USD spot should be unaffected this year” the ING economists wrote in the note.

UPDATE 10/05/2021

A majority of French people (55%) believe that RN is capable of “rising to power”,  while 42%  estimate that RN “is not a danger to democracy”, according to the Kantar Public poll for Franceinfo and Le Monde.

With reporting by Le Journal du Dimanche and DW