CFA Romania

CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index falls in September


The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index dropped 16.4 in September to 57.2 points
on a monthly basis with more than half of CFA analysts (55%) predicting that the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis will last through the last quarter of 2022.

“Amidst a surge in inflation, the inflation expectations for the next 12 months have risen,” CFA Romania Association Deputy Chairman Adrian Codirlasu was quoted as saying in a CFA press statement released on Tuesday (Oct. 26).

The anticipated average inflation rate for the next 12 months averages 5.01%, according to to the CFA monthly poll. Romania’s annual inflation rate increased to 6.3% in September from 5.25% a month earlier,  National Institute of Statistics data showed. It was the highest reading since June 2011, boosted by a faster rise in prices of food products (4.27% vs 2.70% in August), non-food products (8.71% vs 7.90% ), and services (3.75% vs 3.0%).

Financial analysts also see the Romanian leu depreciating to 5.0547 units to the euro during the same period. Today, the average reference rate calculated by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) stands at 4.9476 lei/ euro.

The average value of the anticipated 2021 government deficit is 7.1%. In the second quarter of 2021, the seasonally adjusted general government deficit to GDP ratio stood at 6.7% in Romania, according to Eurostat.

CFA Romania estimates of real term GDP in 2021 average plus 6.6%, with the public debt as a percentage of the GDP in the next 12 months estimated at around 54.1%. At the end of the second quarter of 2021, the government debt to GDP ratio in the Romania stood at 47.5%, according to Eurostat.

When it comes to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), the non-financial factors which investors are increasingly applying them s as part of their analysis process to identify material risks and growth opportunities, CFA survey respondents said the main obstacle to the implementation is insufficient information, followed by a lack of expertise in this area.

“Amidst increased attention of the European Commission to environmental protection, as embodied in regulations on the consideration of ESG factors by financial institutions, questions have been added in the survey about financial bodies’ awareness of these regulations, the preparation of the financial institutions for ensuring the observance of the new regulations, as well as the support offered to customers for securing their observance,” the release said.

CFA Society Romania is one of the most important local professional organizations bringing together investment professionals from banking, asset management, insurance, private equity, pension funds and other different fields of the investment industry. CFA Society Romania was established in 2000 as a professional, non-governmental organization and is one of the investment societies that are part of CFA Institute.