Energy giant BP predicts a potential peak in worldwide oil demand as early as next year, a development that could bring an end to rising global carbon emissions by the mid-2020s amid a surge in renewables.
The company’s latest annual Energy Outlook report has found that oil use will increase by about 2m barrels a day to peak at about 102m in 2025 across both of its outlined scenarios. Together these scenarios span a wide range of the possible outcomes for the global energy system over the next 25 years
Under the scenario that captures the current trajectory, oil demand is expected to fall to 97.8m barrels a day in 2035, which is 5% higher than last year’s BP forecasts. In the net-zero scenario demand will remain at 80.2m barrels in 2035, up 10% on last year’s projection.
The oil demand projection is 76.8m barrels a day by 2050 in the current trajectory, compared with last year’s figure of 73mn b/d. In the other scenario, the decline in oil demand is expected to be more pronounced, plummeting to between 25mn and 30mn bpd by 2050.
The world currently consumes about 100mn b/d of oil.
The British company said oil would continue to “play a significant role in the global energy system for the next 10-15 years”. The closely watched report added that in emerging economies, “increasing levels of prosperity and rising living standards” support a more resilient demand for oil.
The world is in an “energy addition phase in which it is consuming increasing amounts of both low carbon energy and fossil fuels” said Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist. “The challenge is to move – for the first time in history – from the current energy addition phase of the energy transition to an ‘energy substitution’ phase.”
